Bitcoin Alt Coin Crypto Cycles

Typical Crypto Market Cycle:

1. BTC Accumulation Phase Low interest.

Boring price action. Smart money accumulates.
Often occurs after a brutal bear market (aka “crypto winter”).

2. BTC Breakout & Rally

Bitcoin starts gaining attention again.
Institutions may re-enter. ETFs, macro catalysts, or halving often help.

3. Blow-off Top (BTC Mania Phase)

Retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) kicks in.
Media hype. Bitcoin dominates headlines.
Dominance (BTC.D) often rises.

4. BTC Profit-Taking & Rotation Begins

Smart money begins exiting BTC near the top.
BTC cools off — maybe even ranges or corrects.

5. Altcoin Season (Alt Season #1)

Money rotates into large-cap alts (ETH, SOL, ADA, etc.).
Then into mid- and low-cap alts (MEMEs, DEXs, AI tokens).

6. Ethereum often leads this charge.

Altcoin Profit-Taking & Rug Pulls
Altcoins spike and collapse.
Scams and dead projects rise and fall. Gas fees surge.
Retail bags get heavier.

7. Capitulation & Exit Liquidity Games

Latecomers lose money.
Sentiment flips.
Projects begin dying, devs go quiet, influencers pivot.

8. Crypto Winter

Prices bleed slowly.
Volume dies. Builders remain.
Regulators come sniffing.
Everyone swears off crypto.

9. Bottom Fishing / Smart Accumulation

Quiet DCA (dollar-cost averaging).
BTC builds a long-term base.
Narratives begin to form again.

Then the cycle repeats… with new participants and new narratives (AI, DePIN, ETFs, etc.).

Notes:

Timing varies: Each phase can be months or even a year long.
Some skip phases (e.g., no major altseason if BTC dominance remains high).
Macro matters now more than in past cycles — interest rates, recession risk, etc.
This cycle is influenced by ETFs and institutional flows, which may smooth out or extend some phases.

Here’s how the BTC Halving Cycle typically aligns with the phases of the crypto market:

BITCOIN HALVING-BASED MARKET CYCLE (Simplified Timeline)

1. Pre-Halving Accumulation (~6–18 months before halving)

Price is depressed or recovering slowly from the last bear market.
Smart money and long-term holders (LTHs) accumulate BTC.
Most of the market is asleep or disinterested.
On-chain metrics show strength: high HODLer %.

“This is where millionaires are made, but nobody’s paying attention.”

2. Halving Event (Trigger: Scarcity narrative)

Halving itself gets hyped — media attention grows.
Price starts rising pre-halving, often for 6 months leading into it.
Post-halving, supply shock becomes real, but demand takes time to catch up.

Miners sell less BTC (fewer rewards), creating less sell pressure.
BTC dominance often starts rising.

3. Post-Halving Bull Run (6–18 months after halving)

BTC leads the rally and often hits new ATHs within 12–18 months.
Institutions join in (e.g., ETFs, corporate buyers like MicroStrategy).
Retail jumps in late — driving euphoria.

2020 halving → BTC peaked at $69K in Nov 2021 (18 months later)
2024 halving → Possible blow-off top: late 2025 to mid 2026

4. Altcoin Season (During BTC consolidation or retrace post-ATH)

BTC tops out or slows down. Money rotates into altcoins.
ETH and other L1s usually rally first, followed by lower-cap coins.
This phase can last weeks to months.

ETH often hits ATHs after BTC does.

5. Blow-off Top → Distribution → Bear Market (~1–2 years)

Extreme FOMO at the top.
BTC and alts dump hard. Many people lose money.
Media flips bearish.
Builders and real believers stay. Everyone else vanishes.

Crypto winter begins. Max pain. BTC drops 70–85%. Alts 90–99%.

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