Every Red September in Bitcoin’s History Did This First. All 9 of 9.

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September doesn’t hide – it confesses by day 4. Every red September in Bitcoin’s history printed its monthly high in the first days and bled after; every early-bottom September closed green.

In this video: the First Extreme rule, checked across all 179 complete months since 2011 – low first means green 85 of 91 times (93%), high first means red 74 of 88 (84%), and in September the rule is 14 of 15. The two mirror scripts (green: low day 4, high day 18.5 – red: high day 4, low day 16), the dead line 10.9% below the open that no green September has ever survived, the 76,000 liminal zone, Monday’s potentially historic monthly close above the 50-month EMA, and the 114,500 median base case.

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ABOUT THIS CHANNEL
Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with 15+ years of experience. This channel delivers daily Bitcoin and macro market analysis using a systematic five-layer framework: Trend, Volatility, Structure, Momentum, and Risk — the same methodology used on the trading floor. No hype. Data-driven analysis with proof of trade.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Do not trade on any exchange that prohibits trading from your geographical region.

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CHAPTERS
0:00 Cold open: September confesses
1:06 The confession: what September tells you
1:19 All nine red Septembers topped first
2:15 The first extreme: 89% across 179 months
2:51 September: 14 of 15, and the 2015 miss
3:13 The dead line at minus 10.9%
4:01 New lows after week one: the red script
4:51 Three green Septembers in a row
5:09 The split: day 4 vs day 16
6:19 The red script: pop first, bleed late
6:57 Depth is the verdict
8:26 All twelve months obey the split
8:51 September dates: CPI, FOMC, quad witching
9:39 Bitcoin short term: the corrective setup
11:32 The 76,000 liminal zone
13:32 The monthly candle: Monday decides
15:32 Zoom out: 3x from the 2023 base
17:07 Base case: the 114,500 median