Bitcoin’s Overbought Signal: 12 of 13 Times, +26% Within 4 Weeks

This post was originally published on this site

Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic went overbought two weeks ago. The 13 prior cases: +26% median within a month, 12 of 13 green (+18% since 2018).

Also inside: three green months in a row (+60% all-time, +7% since 2018, and why both numbers go on screen), the Kalshi October strikes against the desk’s hit rates, the Krown Optimism Index at -25, the week’s economic prints, the $85,000 mid band and the $80,000 line, and the 3-day call: Kalshi prices Friday over $88,000 at 18c, the base rate says 30%.

🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off everything in the school with code LIFETIME, ends 12:00 noon Pacific Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible)
→ https://krown-trading.teachable.com/

🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets – Trade $25 (Limited Promotion), Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit
→ https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown

📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (medians, samples and green rates, from scratch)
→ https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101

🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction
→ https://coinbase.com/aff/krown

⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial
→ https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬

Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #Kalshi

CHAPTERS
0:00 Two Weeks Ago: The Overbought Signal
0:13 The Weekly Stochastic Over 80: 13 Cases
0:29 12 of 13 Times: +26% Within a Month
0:58 A Little Above $100,000 by End of October
1:17 Kalshi: October High Above $100,000 at 11c
1:48 The Next Leg: Mid-October
2:13 $95,000 at 25c, $92,500 at 40c, $90,000 at 60c
2:57 Since 2018: +17.7%, About $95,000
3:28 Kalshi: Only Bet What You Can Afford to Lose
3:48 Kalshi: Trade $25, Up to $500 Credit
4:03 Eight Weeks Out: +38.7% (All) / +23.5% (Since 2018)
4:40 Medians Have Variance
5:06 Five Setups, One Direction
5:28 No Certainties, but Which Side to Bet
5:47 ‘A Liquidity Grab’ = I Made It Up, Bro
6:05 New Study: Three Green Months
6:46 13 Prior Cases: 77% Green at 1, 3 and 6 Months
7:24 +14%, +60%, +45%: The All-Time Medians
7:38 Since 2018: How Data Fools You (+8%, +7%, +8.5%)
8:42 The Krown Optimism Index: -25, No Edge in the Middle
8:59 Has Bitcoin Been Too Greedy? No
9:22 A Confirming Factor, Not a Signal
9:48 The Daily Hundred – Day 49
10:17 Coinbase: 80% Off Spot Fees, Options Coming
10:51 The October Sale: TradingView’s Rule Change
11:17 The Week Ahead: Minutes, Claims, Sentiment
11:30 Next Week: CPI and PPI
11:40 FOMC Oct 28: Kalshi Hold 82c
11:59 Daily Chart: The $85,000 Mid Band
12:18 Lose It: $83-84,000
12:37 Krown Pivots: $80,000 Is the Line
13:15 Sideways Early October, Then the Leg
13:37 Targets: $87,000-88,500, Then $90,000
13:54 Sign-Off: Live Tomorrow