Bitcoin: 83% Chance of Upside (Here Is Why)

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Everything printed over the weekend: the 10-day reconnect closed $81,412 over its line (official, 62% green in 10 days), the 10-day stochastic crossed 80 (79% green a month later), and the six prior bars where both printed together were 83% green.
Inside: the week into 71 Fed decisions (no edge), the line in the sand at last week’s low, the 5-day silver cross pending, the downside map if it breaks, and Kalshi’s Fed hold at 86c.

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ABOUT THIS CHANNEL
Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with 15+ years of experience. This channel delivers daily Bitcoin and macro market analysis using a systematic five-layer framework: Trend, Volatility, Structure, Momentum, and Risk — the same methodology used on the trading floor. No hype. Data-driven analysis with proof of trade.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Do not trade on any exchange that prohibits trading from your geographical region.

#Bitcoin #Stocks #investing

CHAPTERS
0:00 Cold open: a quiet week into the Fed
0:34 What fired last week: an edge for the last days of October
0:52 Ethereum’s line; hard to be bearish on the higher timeframes
2:51 The week into FOMC: 54% green, no edge
3:44 The 10-day reconnect: official, 62% green in 10 days
4:43 +5% from the close: about $85,000
5:31 The 10-day stochastic: over 80, 79% green a month later
6:53 Since 2018 +14.5%: $93,000 to $95,000
7:55 The stack: both signals on one bar, 83% green
9:03 20 and 30 days out
10:00 The line in the sand: the 12-hour higher low
10:54 The 2-day 200 SMA; under it, $76,500
12:06 The 5-day silver cross: pending
12:52 It needs $83,622 on the next close
13:25 The longer sideways, the better it looks
14:08 Every 5-day silver cross since 2015
15:20 The downside map: $76,500, $75,000, $67,000 to $70,000
15:47 Hidden bullish divergence building
16:15 Kalshi: the Fed hold at 86c
17:37 Kalshi: trade $50, up to $500 credit
18:44 The closer: if you are bullish, last week’s low holds