Bitcoin Touched the Line on the CPI Print. The Bounce Map: $79,700, $81,200, $82,400.

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Bitcoin touched its 5-day 5 EMA at $76,000 on the CPI print – the reconnect called Wednesday. The bounce map from here: $79,700, $81,200, $82,400.

In this video: the reconnect landed at 8:30 ET on the CPI print, the 4th bar, as every one of 99 disconnects since 2011 did – and the next 5-day bar after a touch like this runs +2.5% median, green 76% of the time. Wednesday’s 12-hour corrective cross called a test of the 55 EMA at $75,665; the low stopped 0.44% short. After that test (29 cases), the bounce runs +4.1% in 3 days, +6.1% in 5 and +7.7% in 10 from the touch close – from the Sep 10 close that is about $79,700, $81,200 and $82,400, and 55% clear 5% within five days. If the bounce holds, +6.2% a week later, 75% of the time. Then the CPI stat: for stocks, a green first hour closes the day green 69% and the next session green 77% – Bitcoin does not share it (the next day is green only 44%). Plus the weekend map (another shot at 77,000, the regression through the lows, Reverend Ribbons at 77,935, the 80,000 to 83,000 zone), Ethereum back above its weekly averages, the 75,500 line, and the three CME closes tonight.

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ABOUT THIS CHANNEL
Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with 15+ years of experience. This channel delivers daily Bitcoin and macro market analysis using a systematic five-layer framework: Trend, Volatility, Structure, Momentum, and Risk — the same methodology used on the trading floor. No hype. Data-driven analysis with proof of trade.

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CHAPTERS
0:00 Cold open: it landed
0:11 Never forget: a moment of silence
0:34 The news: hot core CPI, a hike priced at 82%
1:15 The reconnect landed at 76,000
1:50 After the touch: +2.5% median, 76% green
2:13 The 12-hour corrective cross: low on the 55
3:05 Above 77,620 CME: hidden bullish divergence
3:41 The bounce after the test: +4.1% in 3 days
4:39 +6.1% in 5 days and +7.7% in 10
5:38 If the bounce holds: +6.2% a week later
6:12 CPI stats: a green first hour for stocks
7:03 Bitcoin does not have the same stats
7:29 The weekend: another shot at 77,000
8:24 The regression line through the lows
9:10 Reverend Ribbons: 77,935 is the mid band
9:43 Targets: 80,000 to 83,000
9:55 Ethereum: back above the weekly averages
10:58 The line: 75,500 on a daily close
12:16 Kalshi: taking the other side of the hike
13:09 Weekly, biweekly and 3-week CME closes today
13:53 Late September, early October: the real move