Bitcoin’s Bounce Setup Held: +4% by October 3, 62% of the Time

This post was originally published on this site

Bitcoin’s first 5 EMA touch since the breakout held: 171 prior holds ran +4% in 10 days (62%), +10% in 30. Kalshi gives $100K by New Year’s 22%. I bet on it.

Also inside: the 2-day 200 SMA reclaim after 312 days (three priors, +19% in 20 days), the 5-day 200 reclaim on the same bar (15 for 15 green at 40 days), the October Fed odds, the $90,000 line for next week, and Coinbase options for US clients.

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Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Options involve additional risk and are not suitable for all investors.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #Kalshi

CHAPTERS
0:00 Yesterday’s Call, Graded: The Touch Held
0:21 Kalshi: $38M Says $80-85K, Six Digits 22%
0:56 I Bet $100 On It (20 Cents to 41)
2:04 October Hike 68%, Zero Cuts 95%
2:16 The 5 EMA Reconnect: 171 Cases
3:20 +3% in 5 Days: ~$86,000
4:04 +5% by October 2: ~$88,000
4:39 +10% in 30 Days: Back Over $90,000
5:20 The 2-Day 200 SMA Reclaim
5:51 $82,800: The May High Becomes Support
6:47 20 Days Later: Six Digits?
7:31 40 and 60 Days: $110,000 and Beyond
8:14 The 5-Day 200: 15 for 15
9:35 The Nasty Correction, Then March 2027
10:31 Why This Video Isn’t Two Hours Long
11:16 The Weekly Needs Sunday’s Close
11:51 The Daily Hundred – Day 41
12:16 Coinbase Options for US in October
13:28 4-Hour and 6-Hour Divergence
14:02 The Trending Higher Low: $80,000
15:25 Revin Ribbons: $90,000 Next Week
16:19 The Wrap: $81,000-81,500 If It Steps Down