Bitcoin’s Correction Has a Target: $79,000 This Week

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Bitcoin’s correction has a target: the daily 55 EMA at $79,000. 82% of like cases got there inside 10 days; half held, the overshoot median is $75,000.

Also inside: the golden cross on day 30 (+3.8% vs a +3.2% median path, the +20% step at day 40), the overbought weekly’s dip (4.7% median vs 3.9% today), the Kalshi October ladder after the repricing, the $80,000 box and the $75,000 invalidation.

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Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #Kalshi

CHAPTERS
0:00 How Deep Can This Correction Go?
0:18 Stats for the Correction: The Targets
0:39 The Corrective Setups: 4H, 6H, 12H All Hit
0:59 The Daily Setup From Sep 16 Never Tested the 55
1:45 Higher at 2, 3 and 6 Months; $100,000 by Year End
2:05 The Target: The Daily 55 EMA, $79,000
2:47 Late Tests of the 55: It Held 50% (2020 On)
3:26 The Overshoot: About $75,000
3:38 The Last Higher Low: $74,900
4:11 $87,000 to $80,000: A Devastating Short-Term Move
4:26 First Target $79,000; Under $78,500, Then $75-76,000
5:00 Probabilities and Contingency Plans
5:41 Golden Cross: The Roadmap Still Works
6:16 Day 30: +3.2% Median vs +3.8% Real
6:40 Returns Are Mean Reverting
7:03 Day 40: The Step Up, About +20%
7:36 Day 40 = October 16: In the 90s
8:12 Early October Sideways, Late October the Leg
8:24 The 50-Day SMA: Where Bitcoin Sits
8:49 The Overbought Weekly: Momentum, Not a Top
9:31 The Dip It Costs: 4.7% Median, 3.9% Today
10:08 Much Lower = A Signal in Itself
10:27 Two to Six Months Out: Higher
10:42 The $80,000 Box
11:01 Below $75,000: Problematic
11:15 The Crowd: The Optimism Index, Neutral
11:31 Kalshi: $87,500 at 39c, $92,500 at 17c
12:49 October Low Below $75,000? No
12:59 Crack Below $78,500: The Rethink Line
13:15 The Daily Hundred – Day 51
13:26 Coinbase: 80% Off Spot Fees
13:56 Kalshi: Trade $50, Up to $500 Credit
14:22 Revin Ribbons: The Next Band Just Above $79,000
14:50 Reclaim $83,000 = The Low Is In
15:01 Sign-Off