Bitcoin’s Signal Fired, Then Jobs Punched It. 239 Times, Here’s What Happened Next.

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Bitcoin’s momentum signal fired at 81,265, then jobs knocked it down 3%. I measured all 239 times this happened since 2011 — here’s how far it usually goes.

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ABOUT THIS STREAM
In this stream: the Bitcoin head and shoulders everyone is talking about – head $81,455, neckline around $76,600, measured move roughly $71,700 – put through a fixed rulebook and fifteen years of data. Every daily head and shoulders since 2011 that actually broke its neckline: 13 of them, 54% completed, 46% failed. The split that matters: above the 200-day moving average the median slide after the break was -3.0%; below it, -15.3% – and every one that truly hurt (2018, the COVID crash, 2022) broke below the line. Bitcoin is above it. Plus: the September roadmap graded live at the official $78,571 pin (checkpoint 1 is this window – low so far $76,229, no early high), the $75,821-$75,113 buy window, my validation signal – the daily stochastic momentum turn with the $80,000 pivot – and a market maker’s read of the options chain: the street’s own September floor sits at $71,731, the bears’ target to the dollar. Live Bitcoin price analysis and technical analysis, every number verified before air.

ABOUT THIS CHANNEL
Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with 16 years in the markets. This channel delivers daily Bitcoin and macro market analysis using a systematic five-layer framework: Trend, Volatility, Structure, Momentum, and Risk — the same methodology used on the trading floor. No hype. Data-driven analysis with proof of trade.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Do not trade on any exchange that prohibits trading from your geographical region.

#Bitcoin #HeadAndShoulders #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Countdown
10:00 We are back: it is the birthday
10:24 The head and shoulders everyone sees
12:19 Why the pattern is a distraction
13:32 The September roadmap so far: on script
14:23 The buy window: upper 75s
15:01 NEW STUDY: every daily H&S since 2011
15:26 The 200 day split: 3% vs 15%
16:30 Failed patterns pay 7.5% in a month
17:26 Birthday sale: 20% off, code OLDER
18:13 Does the drawing even qualify
19:07 A micro pattern after a 30% rally
19:19 Grant it anyway: the 71,700 target
20:00 The line in the sand: 70 to 72K
20:26 The study in detail: 13 breaks
21:30 How a failure confirms: reclaim 79,400
22:39 The failure target: 85,500
23:34 Scoreboard: the September trajectory
24:02 The validation: daily stochastic turn
24:20 The 80,080 pivot
25:03 The 5 day combo: 28% median, 79% win
26:19 The MM bands: what the street prices
27:17 Key dates: low window, FOMC, the quad
28:01 Tentacles: the EMA crosses
29:27 Reverend Ribbons: the alignment
30:31 Daily DCA: money where my mouth is
31:24 Kalshi fun
35:00 Ticker requests begin
40:41 Was today the September low
47:00 The AI cut videos
52:00 MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin
56:00 CRV and the short trade
1:01:00 What confirms new highs
1:05:00 The insider information rant
1:11:00 Barts and corrections
1:17:00 You always trade against someone
1:21:00 The macro low framing
1:25:00 Buying value, not guessing lows
1:33:00 The 200 week reclaim
1:37:00 Ethereum: the easy setup
1:40:00 Google into year end
1:44:00 Fight camp cardio talk
1:49:00 Options: when I sell premium
1:53:00 Costco for the birthday
1:57:00 Bounce targets
1:59:00 Risk is your stop, not your leverage