Clarity Vote, Fed Hike, Quad Witching: Bitcoin’s Map for the Biggest Week of the Quarter

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LIVE: the biggest week of the quarter. Tuesday the Senate holds the cloture vote on the Clarity Act (60 votes or market-structure law waits until 2030). Wednesday the Fed decides with a 25 bp hike 85% priced. Friday is quad witching. What Bitcoin has done in Fed hike weeks (15 since 2018): the week closes -1.3% median, green 40% – -0.7% into the decision, then +1.3% from the Wednesday close to Friday (67% green). Ten days after a hike: -2.1%. Hold days close +0.8% and run +2.4% in ten. The decision hour trades 2.5x a normal hour.

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0:00 Countdown
10:00 Lights on: we are live