Bitcoin’s Head and Shoulders Is a Coin Flip. I Have 15 Years of Receipts.

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Everyone is drawing a head and shoulders on Bitcoin – head $81,455, neckline breaking now, measured move roughly $71,700. I put it through a fixed rulebook and fifteen years of data: 13 triggered daily H&S since 2011, 54% completed, 46% failed – a coin flip. Above the 200-day moving average the median slide after the break was -3.0%; below it, -15.3% – and every one that actually hurt (2018, COVID, 2022) broke below the line. Bitcoin is above it.

In this video: whether today’s drawing even qualifies (it fails the rulebook twice), the bears’ $71,700 target vs the options market’s own September floor at $71,731, the roadmap graded live at the official $78,571 pin, the $75,821-$75,113 buy window, the validation signal – the daily stochastic turn with the $80,080 pivot and the +28.3% stat behind it – and the failure target at $85,500.

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ABOUT THIS CHANNEL
Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with 15+ years of experience. This channel delivers daily Bitcoin and macro market analysis using a systematic five-layer framework: Trend, Volatility, Structure, Momentum, and Risk — the same methodology used on the trading floor. No hype. Data-driven analysis with proof of trade.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Do not trade on any exchange that prohibits trading from your geographical region.

#Bitcoin #Stocks #investing

CHAPTERS
0:00 Cold open: the pattern everyone sees
0:51 Why it is a distraction
2:04 The roadmap so far: on script
2:54 The buy window: upper 75s
3:32 NEW STUDY: every daily H&S since 2011
3:58 The 200 day split: 3% vs 15%
5:03 Failed patterns pay 7.5% in a month
5:57 Birthday sale: code OLDER
6:31 Does the drawing even qualify
7:25 A micro pattern after a 30% rally
7:37 Grant it anyway: the 71,700 target
8:18 The line in the sand: 70 to 72K
8:44 The study in detail
9:48 How a failure confirms: reclaim 79,400
10:57 The failure target: 85,500
11:53 Scoreboard: the September trajectory
12:21 The validation: daily stochastic turn
12:38 The 80,080 pivot
13:21 The 5 day combo: 28% median, 79% win
14:37 The MM bands: what the street prices
15:35 Key dates: low window, FOMC, the quad
16:19 Tentacles: the EMA crosses
17:45 Reverend Ribbons: the alignment